Alaska Construction: Today and Tomorrow.

• Author: ZEMEK, DAVID C.

Steady growth, fostered by strong public-sector spending, will provide continued opportunity for the Alaska construction industry in 2000 and beyond. The growth trend, which began in the mid-'90s, may eventually match the boom levels exhibited in the Lower 48. Booms, of course, are dependent upon mega-projects not often seen in Alaska. Two such projects loom in the form of a National Missile Defense System and the long-awaited development of North Slope natural gas reserves.

In the meantime, the 2000 construction year will enjoy 10 percent growth, surpassing 1999 spending by an estimated $200 million. This year the Alaska construction industry has experienced a healthy balance between public- and private-sector spending. As the name indicates, "private-sector construction" defies exact quantification. However, as the third quarter of 2000 nears conclusion, it appears the private sector will chip in over $1 billion of the industry total projected at $2.2 billion.

Significant private projects include two downtown Anchorage condominium and office towers. A third welcome project includes renovation of the city's now infamous McKay Building. Elsewhere, private projects of significance include oil industry module construction taking place in Anchorage and Fairbanks.

In the public realm, the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities will support the industry with over $400 million in Year 2000 spending. Projects such as the Whittier Access Project and Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport Landside and Terminal Redevelopment projects represent the most visible projects.

Alaska construction has also experienced a slight burst in hospital spending in 2000. Expansion projects scattered throughout the state (Anchorage, Juneau, Soldotna, Fairbanks, Valdez and Palmer) will account for $80 million this year. Additionally, Fort Wainwright is planning a replacement hospital valued at $132 million total project cost.

Beyond 2000, the Alaska construction industry can expect continued balance in the distribution of public and private funds for new projects. Aside from the two mega-projects referred to earlier, numerous opportunities will present themselves. Residential construction will likely dip below $400 million per year until interest rate concerns are eased. Commercial building will likely dip slightly as well, for much the same reason. However, the need for office space and a likely retail development in Muldoon are potential...