Airframers pull out all stops in fight for Air Force T-X contract.

• Author: Machi, Vivienne

The stakes are high for four major military jet manufacturers as the Air Force prepares to formally kick off the competition for its new jet fighter training system, analysts said.

A final request for proposals is expected by the end of December for the T-X jet trainer program. Four teams--led by industry giants Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and Northrop Grumman--are vying for the $628 million contract, which will initially call for 350 aircraft, along with a number of ground training systems.

But that's just the beginning, said Ray Jaworowski, senior aerospace analyst at Forecast International, a Newtown, Connecticut-based marketing and consultant firm.

"You have this big export market that could add 200 units, 300 units on top of the Air Force buy," he said.

The T-X program aims to replace 431 T-38 aircraft, with initial operating capability scheduled for 2024 and full operational capability expected for 2034, according to the Air Force.

Any country that operates an advanced jet trainer--such as the German and Turkish air forces--could be a potential customer for T-X, Jaworowski said.

The world trainer market is valued at about $3 billion per year, and the T-X program is "easily the most important competition" in the high-end jet market, according to a recent report by the Teal Group, an aerospace and defense market analysis firm.

"It's almost impossible" for the Air Force not to proceed with replacing the T-38 fleet, said Richard Aboulafia, Teal Group vice president of analysis, citing "the sheer age of the T-38" as a main factor. The Air Force continues to perform upgrades on the aircraft, which will be over 70 years old by the time it is retired.

"They announced recently that the T-38 would be re-winged again, the cockpits are all new ... but you're still talking about half-century-plus" aged aircraft, he said.

Fewer than 800 Western high-end jet trainers have been delivered worldwide over the past 20 years, according to the Teal Group report.

"In other words, for any major U.S. airframer and anyone in the world building a trainer in this class, it is impossible to not compete for this requirement," the report said.

The competition is balanced between two teams with off-the-shelf aircraft--Lockheed Martin with Korean Aerospace Industries' T-50A and Raytheon and Italian manufacturer Alenia Aermacchi's T-100--and two clean-sheet designs from a Boeing-Saab partnership and Northrop Grumman with BAE Systems and L-3.

In theory, an...