Air Force modernization plans on track.

• Author: Magnuson, Stew
• Position: AIRFORCE

ANALYSTS HAD WARNED IN recent years that the Air Force should brace for drastic cuts in its aircraft procurement programs. The administration's proposed budget for fiscal year 2007, however, not only preserves the service's key acquisition accounts, but also contains seed money to begin research and development for new generations of aircraft.

But the ramping up of new programs, such as a tanker replacement, a long-range bomber, and ongoing efforts such as the joint strike fighter and the F-22A Raptor, may mean some budget crunches in the near-term, experts predicted. Meanwhile, none of the Air Force's major programs face cancellation.

"They got their share of the budget, that's for sure," said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst for the Teal Group. "They preserved key programs and, in general, seem to be on track for their vision."

The Air Force requested $105.9 billion in fiscal 2007--with $37.4 billion allocated to procurement.

Doug Berenson, a military analyst for DFI International, said, "I think the Air Force got most of what it was looking for out of this last [Quadrennial Defense Review] and budget cycle."

The crunch will come in 2008, when many of the modernization programs begin in earnest, the analysts said.

At the top of the Air Force's wish list was preserving and "preventing further erosion" in the F-22A program, Berenson added. The restructuring through fiscal year 2010 is a hedge against any glitches in the development of the F-35 joint strike fighter, the QDR said. Plans call for seven squadrons and 183 aircraft.

The roadmap "allows us to keep the production line open as an insurance policy for the nation until we get the JSF--not only fielded--but procured in numbers," said Lt. Gen. Stephen Wood, deputy chief of staff for plans and programs.

In the long term, renewed emphasis on unmanned aircraft and long-range strike could soon be competing for resources with manned fighter jets, said Michael O'Hanlon, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute. "I would be surprised if the F-22 and the F-35 survive completely intact in their current form," he added.

Proponents of a new bomber got their wish with the Air Force proclaiming that it would have a new aircraft fielded by 2018. In the short term, the Defense Department wants to reduce the number of B-52 Stratofortresses it keeps on hand from 94 down to 56, and put the savings into revitalizing the B-1s, B-2s and the remainder of the B-52 fleet. The service has proposed retiring 18 of...