Agricultural Productivity and Child Mortality: The Impact of the Green Revolution

• Date: 01 March 2014
• Author: Mark W. Rosegrant,Timothy B. Sulser,Robert E. Evenson,Siwa Msangi
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.18278/wfp.1.1.6
• Published date: 01 March 2014

World Food Policy

94

Many papers have examined the impact of the Green Revolution and the

international agricultural research centers on agricultural productivity and

the rates of return to agricultural research investment. Here we extend this

analysis to look at the impact on food security and human welfare as

measured by child mortality. In this paper, we conduct two counterfactual

simulations for the 30-year period 1970-2000—the irst holding 1970 crop

genetic improvements constant and the second presuming the International

Agricultural Research Center (IARC) system had not been built. Our results

show that Green Revolution technologies and the IARC system signiicantly

reduced child mortality. he counterfactual analysis demonstrates the im-

portance of the Green Revolution in generating not only sustained improve-

ments in crop productivity growth through the 1970s and 1980s, but also the

powerful indirect efects on human welfare as measured by child mortality.

Keywords: Agricultural productivity, Green Revolution, child mortality

1. Introduction

Agricultural productivity around

the world has grown considerably

over the past few decades, much of

which can be attributed to agricultural re-

search. is is especially accurate for the

growth achieved during the Green Revolu-

tion period when breeding and adoption of

improved crop varieties, especially rice and

wheat, combined with the expanded use of

fertilizers, other chemical inputs, and irriga-

tion led to dramatic yield increases for these

two crops in Asia and Latin America, be-

ginning in the late 1960s. Although growth

of public funding for agricultural research

in both developing countries and Organi-

zation for Economic Cooperation and De-

velopment (OECD) countries has slowed in

recent years, it has been a signicant source

of support for many decades. is was par-

ticularly true during the 1960s, when public

agricultural research funds were more avail-

able than private funds (Alston and Pardey

1996).

Agricultural Productivity and Child Mortality:

e Impact of the Green Revolution

Mark W. Rosegrant1, Robert E. Evenson, Siwa Msangi2, Timothy B. Sulser3

1 Corresponding author: Director, Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food

Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC.

2 Senior Research Fellow, Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy

Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC.

3 Trade and Markets Division, Economic and Social Development Department, Food and Agriculture Orga-

nization of the United Nations (FAO) (formerly IFPRI).

"his paper is dedicated to the memory of Robert E. Evenson. Bob was a great teacher and

advisor to hundreds of students at Yale and in the Philippines, many of whom have gone

on to highly successful careers. Bob was a leading scholar in research related to agri¬cul-

tural research, economic development, and education."

95

Agricultural Productivity and Child Mortality: he Impact of the Green Revolution

is was particularly true during the 1960s,

when public agricultural research funds

were more available than private funds

(Alston and Pardey 1996).

Prior to the Green Revolution, an as-

sessment was made of the National Agricul-

tural Research Systems in various countries

in order to determine whether there was a

demonstrated need for them to be support-

ed by a system of International Agricultur-

al Research Centers (IARCs). ese IARCs

were to provide the technical expertise and

knowledge that would help to overcome

local barriers to eective promulgation of

best-agricultural-practices and produc-

tivity enhancements at the countr y level,

and to support the struggling agricultural

economies of those regions most in need of

development. Even without the eventual in-

troduction of radical improvements in crop

genetic traits, a successful argument for the

positive impacts of IARCs could be made in

many countries.

Numerous studies have found that

public agricultural research has had a posi-

tive impact on agricultural productivity and

for society as a whole, and that the impact

of IARCs on agricultural development has

likewise been positive in many countries.

For example, a c omprehensive analy sis of

rates of return to agricultural research and

development by Alston et al. (2000) consid-

ers 292 studies with a total of 1,885 estimates

published since 1953. e rese archers cal-

culate an average rate of return for research

of 100 percent per year, with a median rate

of 48 p ercent and mode of 46 percent. Sep-

arately, Evenson (2003) estimates at least

half of all productivity gains since 1965 in

developing countries are due to crop genet-

ic improvement, with varieties developed

by IARCs accounting for about half the

crop genetic improvement. Country- and

crop-specic examples also abound, such as

Brazil, with crop genetic improvement pro-

grams contributing about 50 percent of the

historical yield gains (Avila et al. 2003), and

rice productivity over the past 40 years in

Asia, where the Green Revolution is widely

considered an enormous success (Hossain

et al. 2003). In the United States, the rate of

return to agricultural research is estimated

around 45–50 percent (Fuglie and Heisey

2007; Human and Evenson 2006).

While many studies have looked at

the impacts of public research funding on

agricultural productivity and the rates of

return to research, few have looked close-

ly at the plausible impacts of declines in

crop research on international agricultural

production and the subsequent indirect ef-

fects on human welfare. Such an examina-

tion exposes the important linkage between

agricultural productivity, wider economic

growth, and human welfare such as child

mortality. While there are numerous fac-

tors that can lead to the betterment of these

human welfare indicators—ranging from

the improved provision and accessibili-

ty to primary healthcare, increased access

to clean water, and higher levels of educa-

tion (especially for women)—we focus on

those which relate directly to the improve-

ment of agricultural performance, which

is still where the bulk of economic activity

resides in developing countries, especially

for many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

In particular, we are interested in the con-

nection between the types of productivity

improvements that can be attributed to the

IARCs as well as to the Green Revolution,

so we can assess their respective impacts on

indicators of human welfare.

A key indicator of human wel-

fare is child mortality. e United Nations

Children’s Fund (2012) estimates that the

number of children who die before age 5 is

approximately 7 mill ion per year, and infe c-

tious disease is the leading cause of death.

Of the total, Black et al. (2013) estimates