Africa: the United States and China court the continent.

• Author: Shinn, David H.
• Position: Report

The United States and China are the two most important bilateral, external actors in Africa today. While the United States wields more influence in most of Africa's fifty-three countries, China has surpassed it in a number of states and is challenging it in others. Both countries look to Africa as an increasingly significant source of raw materials, especially oil. China, more than the United States, views Africa from a long-term strategic perspective. Both countries seek political and economic support in international forums from African countries, which constitute more than a quarter of the membership of the United Nations. The interests of the United States and China in Africa are more similar than dissimilar. There will inevitably be some competition over access to African natural resources and political support, but there are even greater opportunities for cooperation that can benefit African nations.

While this analysis looks only at the role of China and the United States in Africa, it is important to keep in mind that there has been a recent expansion of interest in the continent by a number of other countries. Following the end of the Cold War, attention by Western nations, especially the former colonial powers, tapered off and has only recently returned. The collapse of the Soviet Union resulted in a significant decrease in engagement on the continent by the former communist bloc countries, although Russia has in the past two years shown renewed interest in Africa. Japan and South Korea have maintained their economic links. The major change, however, has been increased engagement in the past decade by China, India, Brazil, several Arab gulf states, Iran and most recently Turkey. Although the global economic crisis may slow down some of this new attention, the playing field in Africa has become more crowded. In addition, the relationships have changed from efforts to obtain political influence by opposing sides during the Cold War to a post-Cold War emphasis by all outside actors on developing stronger economic and commercial ties with Africa.

The recent economic downturn poses new challenges for the interaction of both the United States and China with African countries. While all three parties will suffer to some extent, China is better situated over the short-term to weather the storm. It has a US$2 trillion supply of foreign reserves, a current account surplus, minimal links to foreign banks and a budget surplus. Consequently, China is in a stronger position than the United States to maintain solid trade and economic ties with Africa. As of late 2008, China held $653 billion in U.S. treasury securities out of a total of $3 trillion held by all nations} China's holdings constituted more than any other country or about 22 percent of all U.S. securities owned by foreigners. Because of this enormous investment, China has some leverage that could work to its advantage as it competes with the United States in other parts of the world, including Africa. The United States will be reluctant to pick a fight with China on African issues that are marginal to U.S. security.

The new Obama administration will inevitably make some changes in the U.S. approach toward Africa and may reassess the way the United States interacts with China on the continent. Neither China nor Africa was a significant campaign issue. The Obama team made clear that it would work to fight global poverty, root out corruption, continue efforts to reduce HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria, provide debt relief, encourage a green revolution in Africa, support democratization efforts, finance counter-terrorism cooperation, build health infrastructure and launch a global energy and environment initiative to combat climate change. (2) Except for the focus on democratization and possibly climate change, none of these issues should pose a problem for United States-China interaction in Africa.

President Obama has said the two countries should seek to find common ground upon which they can better contribute to Africa's development. However, he has also expressed strong support for establishment of a "no-fly" zone in Darfur, which will encounter vociferous opposition from China. (3) Obama said he would try to draw China into the international system and work with it on shared political, economic, environmental and security objectives. Obama urged cooperation to create more secure, affordable and dependable energy supplies. He added that the United States must be frank with China when there are differences on human rights issues. (4)

COMPARING THE INTERESTS OF CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES IN AFRICA

China has four principal interests in Africa. First, it wants to ensure access to the oil, minerals and agricultural products that contribute to China's security and GDP growth rate, which has averaged almost 10 percent annually over the last three decades. (5) Second, China desires good relations with all African countries so it can count on their political and economic support in regional and international forums. Third, it seeks to end Taiwan's diplomatic presence on the continent and to replace it with recognition of Beijing. Fourth, China wants to significantly increase its exports as African economies become stronger and Africans become wealthier. (6)

While most Chinese officials are quick to deny that access to African natural resources is their top priority, both Chinese trade patterns and investment in the continent suggest otherwise. China obtained 33 percent of its imported oil from Africa in 2006 and even larger percentages of minerals such as cobalt and manganese. (7) There is a widely held belief that if China's annual GDP growth rate drops below 8 percent, it will pose problems for the current leaders of China's Communist Party. (8) This is a situation they will make every effort to avoid. In a recent discussion with the author, a senior Communist Party official was optimistic that even with the global economic crisis the country's GDP growth rate would not fall below this level in 2009. (9)

Independent African countries were instrumental in supporting Beijing's admission into the United Nations in 1971. China has never forgotten this fact and recognizes that African votes are crucial to supporting its policies in forums such as the World Trade Organization. Many African governments hold views on human rights issues that are similar to those of China. They support each other in public statements and in confronting criticism from the West in the UN Human Rights Council and elsewhere.

Four African countries--Gambia, Burkina Faso, Swaziland and Sao Tome and Principe--still recognize Taiwan. Although none of these countries is particularly important, China has worked energetically to ensure that it does not lose the recognition of countries that now recognize Beijing. In addition, China has attempted to convince those that have relations with Taiwan to switch allegiance. Beijing does not oppose Taipei's commercial interests in Africa, but insists that African governments accept the "one China" principle if they want relations with China.

In recent years, Africa has collectively maintained a small trade surplus with China thanks primarily to large oil exports from several countries. Chinese exports to Africa constitute less than 3 percent of total exports and consist primarily of manufactured products, machinery and transport equipment. (10) In spite of the small percentage of its exports going to Africa, both large Chinese companies and small traders assiduously cultivate African markets. Although there are huge regional variations, Africa's 965 million people have an unusually high population growth rate)L Looking to the future, China has every intention of maximizing its exports to Africa.

U.S. interests in Africa are surprisingly similar to those of China. In 2006, it received 22 percent of its imported oil from Africa. (12) Although this was a smaller percentage than China's, it constituted a higher total amount because the United States imports considerably more oil than does China. The United States relies much less on Africa for imported minerals. Like China, the United States sees Africa as a market for its exports, but it is less engaged than China in promoting exports to Africa. To some extent, the close relationship between the Chinese state and its large companies provides an advantage not shared by private American companies with the U.S. government.

The United States is as interested as China in obtaining political and economic support of African countries in international forums. At the governmental level, however, it has not worked as hard in recent years as China to cultivate the support of African governments. In addition, some U.S. foreign policies have not been well received by many African leaders. For example, provision of U.S. aid contingent upon political and economic reform has been largely unpopular. Unlike China, the United States does not need to concern itself with countering a competitor seeking diplomatic recognition on the continent.

A number of security issues, especially counterterrorism, have risen to the top of the list of U.S. interests in Africa. Since September 11, 2001, the United States has devoted considerable resources, particularly in North Africa, the Sahel--the region south of the Sahara and north of the savanna belt--and East Africa, to combating terrorism and assisting African governments to do the same. In 2002, the United States established a military base in Djibouti to improve its ability to counter terrorism in the region. This distinguishes U.S. interests from those of China, which has no military bases in Africa and professes not to desire any. On the other hand, increasing attacks on Chinese personnel in countries such as Ethiopia, Sudan and Nigeria may cause China to pay more attention to security concerns. Following efforts by pirates to seize Chinese ships off Somalia...