Afghanistan conundrum: logistical support options after the Manas air base closing.

• Author: Livergood, Reed
• Position: Report

Editor's Note: With the United States planning a significant increase in troop levels in Afghanistan, the pace of the counter-terrorism effort in that country will increase dramatically. As it does, the logistical challenge of moving personnel and material to this distant battleground will grow as well. This essay explores the possibility of and difficulties inherent in using bases in the former Soviet Central Asian republics for that purpose.--Pub.

On February 3, 2009 Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced in Moscow that "the Kyrgyz government has taken a decision to terminate the rent of the [Manas air] base." (1) He cited as the rationale behind the decision Washington's refusal to discuss a higher base-lease fee and reluctance to apologize for the 2006 killing of a Kyrgyz citizen by a U.S. officer. By the end of the week, a bill was submitted to the Kyrgyz government annulling agreements in respect to U.S. and ten other NATO forces stationed at Manas air base. (2) On February 20, 2009, President Bakiyev signed the bill that closes the Manas facility into law. (3) The United States has 180 days to vacate the base after the Kyrgyz government passes the paperwork on to the U.S. embassy in Bishkek. The decision was almost unanimous, as 78 of the 90 deputies voted for the bill. (4) This leaves U.S. policy makers searching for better options in Central Asia for basing rights.

The supply chain to Afghanistan is complicated and detailed but provides nuances for analysis. As unclear U.S. goals continue to cloud the situation in Afghanistan, (5) and the Pakistan thoroughfare continues to be attacked by neighboring forces, (6) NATO and U.S. commanders have been searching for a safer route to the Afghan theater. U.S. forces currently possess supply routes through Central Asia, which prove advantageous in different ways. However, there are also problems with shipping supplies through Central Asia, as this route is complicated terrain that traverses many nation-states. Not only is the route complex logistically, but exerts considerable strains on the Pentagon's budget. (7)

Manas Air Base was a key link in the Central Asian supply chain assisting U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

Background to the Problem

The Manas Air Base was one base of many secured after the September 11 attacks to establish strategic presence for the U.S. military operation in Afghanistan. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev signed a joint statement October 11, 2001 in which Bishkek expressed support for the presence of coalition forces in the Kyrgyz Republic "until the mission of fighting terrorism in Afghanistan is completed." (8) Since the joint statement was signed, 170,000 U.S. military personnel have passed through the base on their way to or from Afghanistan, together with 5,000 tons of military equipment. (9) Approximately 1000 U.S. troops are stationed at the base, together with smaller contingents from France and Spain. Currently, about 15,000 people and 500 tons of cargo transit through Manas each month (10) on their way to Afghanistan.

Manas has proven to be a politically sensitive issue for U.S. leadership for several reasons. In a January 2009 trip through Central Asia, Head of U.S. Central Command General David Petraeus said that "$63 million of funds [we] are giving [is] for leasing the airport, paying contracts and salaries to the local personnel." (11) However, Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Kadyrbek Sarbayev said that "Kyrgyzstan gets $150 million from the USA every year, but most of these funds are not for deploying the Manas air base." He stressed that this was the 'total sum' of U.S. payments while the air base totaled only $17.5 million per year. (12) The United States considers that the funds were not used properly as corruption was evident in who received payments. Former President Aydar Akayev's son was the recipient of $2 million annually in lease payments, plus additional fees of $7,000 per takeoff and landing. (13) Meanwhile, Akayev's son-in-law received $87 million and $32 million for his two airport service companies during Akayev's tenure as president. The "influence" that the United States and Russia have shown in Central Asia has been in existence since Russia and Britain solidified the term in the nineteenth century as the "Great Game."

Central Asian leaders have attempted to exploit the Moscow-Washington rivalry in the region for their own advantage, pitting each power against the other in an attempt to extract the most advantageous deals. In December 2005, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev publically demanded a hundred-fold increase in U.S. lease payments--from $2 million to $200 million--that was eventually negotiated in July 2006. (14) After each occurrence, once receiving something from the American side in money or promises, the Kyrgyz leadership backed away from canceling permission to stay. (15) Two weeks after Bakiyev made the February 2009 announcement for U.S. forces to leave Manas, the U.S. government reportedly...