Activist Disconnect: Social Movements, Public Opinion, and U.S. Military Bases in East Asia

• Author: Taylor C. Boas,Claudia J. Kim
• Published date: 01 October 2020
• Date: 01 October 2020
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X19864127
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Activist Disconnect:

Social Movements,

Public Opinion, and

U.S. Military Bases

in East Asia

Claudia J. Kim

1

and Taylor C. Boas

1

Abstract

Do activists seeking to challenge the U.S. military presence overseas succeed in

persuading the local population? While the comparative literature on base con-

testation often makes implicit causal claims about public opinion and behavior, these

claims have never been tested empirically using individual-level data. Based on an

online survey, experiment with residents of communities hosting U.S. military bases

in Korea and Japan, we demonstrate a disconnect between anti-base movements and

local residents. Local public opinion is most responsive to pragmatic framing of

opposition by social movements and tangible information about the consequences of

base expansion. Other common activist tactics have little effect and may even

backfire. Our findings fill an important gap in the growing literature on the politics of

U.S. military bases abroad.

Keywords

U.S. military, civil–military relations, public opinion, social movement

1

Department of Political Science, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA

Corresponding Author:

Claudia J. Kim, Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, Harvard University, 61 Kirkland Street, Cambridge, MA

02138, USA.

Email: cldk@bu.edu

Armed Forces & Society

2020, Vol. 46(4) 696-715

ªThe Author(s) 2019

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/0095327X19864127

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Do activists seeking to challenge the U.S. military presence overseas succeed in

persuading the local population? While the comparative literature on base contesta-

tion often makes implicit causal claims about factors that influence local public

opinion, these claims have not been tested empirically using individual-level data.

The burgeoning literature on anti-U.S. base movements, which often draws a picture

of the beleaguered U.S. presence and tense civil–military relations (Calder, 2007;

Cooley, 2008; Holmes, 2014; Yeo, 2011), has yet to test whether activists are

actually effective in influencing public opinion.

Research has shown that anti-base activists, like any other type of activists, make

conscious efforts to optimize movement strategies for greater public resonance of

their causes (Yeo, 2006). Given the common movement goal of influencing policy

(Amenta, Caren, Chiarello, & Su, 2010), and the proven ability of stable opinion

majorities to shape policy decisions (Page & Shapiro, 1983), it is puzzling that little

attention has been given to whether anti-ba se movements’ strategies succeed in

shifting public opinion in their favor. We fill this gap by offering the first empirical

evidence from survey experiments examining what factors shape local communities’

sentiment toward U.S. bases they host, and whether they align with commonly

employed activist strategies. Theoretically, we bridge the literatures on base politics,

social movements, and public opinion, testing a number of implicit causal claims

made by prior studies.

To assess the effect of common anti-base social movement strategies on local

public opinion, we combine evidence from online survey experiments and inter-

views with anti-base activists in Korea and Japan. We first draw on interviews to

describe common movement strategies and advance hypotheses regarding their

effects on public opinion. We then test these hypotheses via online survey experi-

ments targeting residents of key host communities. Treatment conditions varied the

information that respondents were provided about U.S. bases in their community, in

line with different strategies that movements themselves have employed. Our results

show that anti-base movements are sometimes misguided, or even self-defeating, in

their efforts to shift attitudes against U.S. bases. Local public opinion is responsive

to pragmatic framing of opposition to U.S. military bases and tangible information

about how bases affect everyday lives. A different, frequently employed approach—

drawing attention to high-profile crimes committed by U.S. service members—has

small and mostly insignificant effects. Other common strategies, such as making

ideological or nationalistic appeals or drawing attention to the anti-base stance of

local governments, either have no effect on local attitudes or may actually boost

support for U.S. bases. On the whole, our research demonstrates a disconnect

between some of the common activist strategies and local attitudes.

U.S. Bases, Movements, and Public Opinion

Political elites routinely overestimate the resonance of ideological appeals among

the mass public, a strategy that often fall s flat and sometimes clearly backfir es

Kim and Boas 697