About 1,900 New Jobs for Anchorage.

• Author: POKORNY, JEFF
• Position: Statistical Data Included

As the year comes to an end, it's a good time to review hat has happened in the Anchorage economy during 2000, review some significant events that may affect employment in the future and update readers on some projects that have been in the headlines during the year. The forecast presented in January predicted 2,200 new employees for the year 2000. The Anchorage Economic Development Corp. updated this forecast recently to estimate that approximately 1,920 new jobs were created in the year 2000. This revision was based on a review of actual employment numbers for the first half of 2000 and significant events within the sectors that are influencing employment.

Mining/Oil & Gas

AEDC's January forecast included a loss of 280 jobs in the mining/oil & gas sector. At that time, BP Amoco was attempting to purchase Arco Alaska Inc. Arco's assets were ultimately split between BP Amoco and Phillips Petroleum Co. and, contrary to AEDC's initial forecasts, the sale was completed with no immediate losses in jobs. Phillips Alaska Inc. is bringing the Alpine field online, and has plans to boost its production to 400,000 barrels a day. BP Amoco recently announced that it expects the Northstar field to begin production in late 2001.

This sector has been steadily losing jobs over the past 10 years. AEDC's updated outlook for 2000 revised the estimated job loss from 280 to 50 jobs. This revision was due to the higher-than-expected number of jobs created in the first half of 2000. For 2001, the declining employment trend in this sector should continue as realignment and consolidation occurs in the oil patch. However, planned increases in production, higher oil prices and expanded drilling operations could offset or even reverse the long-term trend. Popular opinion among the major sources say that oil prices will stay at or above $30 a barrel through at least the first quarter of 2001, but that prices could fall into the mid- to low-$20 range by the end of 2001. President Clinton's decision to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in September had some immediate effect on oil prices, but the long-term price effects remain to be seen.

Government

The January forecast predicted 90 new jobs in this sector for 2000. However Census Bureau employment required more than 400 workers, causing a temporary increase in this sector. Now that the census workers have been let go, employment is coming back to more normal levels.

The Anchorage School District cut more than 120 jobs...