Legislative Outlook

• Publication year: 2019
• Pages: 14
• Citation: Vol. 88 No. 1 Pg. 14

Legislative Outlook No. 88 J. Kan. Bar Assn 1, 14 (2019) Kansas Bar Journal January, 2019

2019 Legislative Outlook

by Joseph N. Molina III

For the first time in nearly a decade, the Kansas Legislature will open its legislative session with a Democrat as governor. Governor Laura Kelly was sworn into office earlier this month. She, along with her Lt. Governor Lynn Rogers, will lead Kansas for the next four years. Gov. Kelly will focus on expanding Medicaid and finishing up the school finance formula; both were main issues in her campaign for governor.

Gov. Kelly will need to work with a Republican-controlled House. The 2018 election saw no change in the composition of the Kansas House, with Republicans continuing to hold an 85-40 advantage. However, conservative Republicans were able to increase their caucus by winning key primary races. Moderate Republicans saw their numbers decrease due to those primary election losses and losses in the general election against Democrats in the Johnson County area.

The 125 members also elected new House leadership positions. Ron Ryckman Jr. will remain Speaker for the next two years. He will be joined by Rep. Dan Hawkins as Majority Leader. Hawkins defeated Rep, Don Hineman. Rep. Blaine Finch will serve as Speaker Pro Tem after defeating Rep. Hoffman. House Assistant Minority Leader is Rep. Les Mason . on unopposed

House Democrats elected an entirely new slate of leaders: House Minority Leader will be Rep. Tom Sawyer who replaces Rep. Jim Ward. Both democrats are from Wichita. Sawyer was previously Minority Leader but stepped aside to run for Governor in 1998. Rep. Valdenia Winn is Assistant Leader; Rep. Jim Gartner is Minority Whip; Agenda Chair is Rep. Brett Parker.

On the Senate side, change will come by way of ascension and resignation. Three sitting Senators ascend to higher office (Laura Kelly, Lynn Rogers and Vicki Schmidt) while Sen. Steve Fitzgerald resigned after losing in the primary for the 2nd Congressional District. Sen. Fitzgerald was replaced by Kevin Braun, a veteran of the United States Army and the Kansas Army National Guard. Gov. Laura Kelly's seat will be assumed by Rep. Vic Miller (D-Topeka). Lt. Gov. Rogers was replaced by Mary Ware. Sen. Vicki Schmidt will be succeeded by Eric Rucker who has been an assistant the Kansas Secretary of State's Office. Also of note is Sen. Barbara Bollier's decision to leave the Republican party after serving as an "R" for 10 years. She is now the newest member of the Democrat caucus in the Senate. This alters the Senate make-up to 31-9 Republican advantage.

With conservatives maintaining leadership positions in both chambers, it may be hard going for the new governor's agenda. Leadership could block tax policy or expanding Medicaid. On the flip side, leadership will have to contend with a governor who isn't as willing to sign off on certain social policy issues. Whether a bipartisan group emerges that can overcome this built-in hurdle will be the dynamic to watch this coming session.

Statewide offices will be filled by:

U.S. House District 1	Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend)
U.S. House District 2	Rep. Steve Watkins (R-Topeka)
U.S. House District 3	Rep. Sharice Davids (D-KS City)
U.S. House District 4	Rep. Ron Estes (R-Wichita)
Secretary of State	Scott Schwab (R-Olathe)
Attorney General	Derek Schmidt (R-Independence)
Treasurer Jake	LaTurner (R-Topeka)
Insurance Commissioner	Vicki Schmidt (R-Topeka)

While Gov. Kelly readies her team for the upcoming session, they have an advantage the past few governors did not—a stable revenue projection. Over the last ten years, state revenues have consistently fallen below expectations. Reasons for the shortfalls vary from economic recession to poor oil/gas returns to depressed farm exports. Whatever the reasons, these issues are not affecting the state at the start of the Kelly era.

In November, the Kansas Consensus Revenue Estimating Group forecast an increase of more than $300 million for the remainder of FY 2019. This revision should see an ending balance of $900 million or 12 percent. Those numbers tail off a bit in FY 2020/FY 2021, for which estimators see a $75 million drop-off from FY 2019 levels.

Those projections could make it easier to pass the last phase of the school finance formula dealing with inflation and open the door to lowering the sales tax on food. However, with more money in the bank...