7 Deadly Scenarios

• Author: Major Ann B. Ching
• Pages: 08

7 DEADLY SCENARIOS1

REVIEWED BY MAJOR ANN B. CHING2

In Greek mythology, Apollo cursed Cassandra with the ability to accurately predict disasters, but the inability to convince anyone to believe her.3 Perhaps that is how Andrew Krepinevich felt as he testified before the House Budget Committee in 1999.4 "[F]uture challenges to our security are likely to be very different from those we face today," he stated, referring to the Department of Defense (DoD) fiscal year 2000 budget request.5 Krepinevich criticized the DoD's request to fund "submarines, aircraft carriers, and fighter jets" without considering the need for weapons and equipment to better respond to the coming century's "revolutionary times."6

Ten years later, his testimony seems eerily prescient as the United States struggles with how to fund, and fight, a war where modern technology must compete with C4 and cell phones. Against this backdrop, Krepinevich takes his concerns from the halls of Congress to American bookstores in 7 Deadly Scenarios.7 This book is a no-holds-barred look at a future where everything that can go wrong, will. Krepinevich creates richly detailed scenarios that add a thrill factor the casual reader can appreciate.8 He falls short, however, in providing a methodology to prioritize planning for the various catastrophes he describes. Ultimately, 7 Deadly Scenarios is most valuable as a starting point when thinking about the various issues that may arise during any

given catastrophic event. Serious study on this topic, however, requires additional research to place these scenarios in their proper context.

The premise of 7 Deadly Scenarios is not unique. Throughout the decades, sounding the doomsday alarm has been a recurring theme among fiction and non-fiction writers alike. Any child of the 1980s will remember losing sleep over the coming nuclear war, the Soviet-Cuban invasion, or the economic dominance of the Japanese.9 These predictions ultimately fizzled, which might shed doubt upon the fortune-telling genre's utility in practical strategic planning. In 7 Deadly Scenarios, however, Krepinevich takes pains to remind his readers that his scenarios are not "an attempt to predict the future."10 Rather, he chooses to create "stories about how future events might come to pass."11

A fine distinction, perhaps, but one that allows him latitude in crafting his attention-getting scenarios.

Krepinevich opens with a cautionary tale that emphasizes the importance of creating, and heeding, scenarios. He recounts the U.S. Army's decision to dismiss the results of a 1932 war game that predicted a catastrophic air attack on Pearl Harbor, based on the belief that "it was improper to begin a war on a Sunday."12 Failures such as these, Krepinevich argues, are based on planning for the last war, rather than the next.13 One way to work around this barrier, he posits, is to "reduce the range of uncertainty surrounding the future" through vignettes that build upon "certain trends-political, economic, social, military-technical, etc."14

To demonstrate this thesis, the bulk of the book consists of the promised "deadly scenarios." Rather than stray into the fantastic, Krepinevich focuses on issues of contemporary concern: domestic terrorism, pandemic flu, and the collapse of Iraq, among others.15 To

address these issues, 7 Deadly Scenarios essentially creates seven parallel universes in which each scenario unfolds without the influence of the others.16 Thus, readers looking for a comprehensive study of the global future will have to look elsewhere.17 This structure does, however, allow the author to focus exclusively on each chapter's main issue.

Further enhancing the uncertain nature of the scenarios is Krepinevich's choice to use a quasi-fictional narrative style. Each scenario is grounded in present day events and circumstances, but then fast-forwards to the near future-2010, 2011, and beyond.18 In this imagined future, U.S. Presidents named Norville Dickson and John Dannemeyer deal with avian flu and (yet more) crises in the Middle East.19 Although his style occasionally veers toward melodrama,20 for the most part Krepinevich effectively weaves actual history, present-day facts, and projected events into his scenarios.

A brief conclusion follows the scenarios.21 Do not expect to find concrete solutions; Krepinevich specifically states that the scenarios exist only "to help military planners reduce the risk inherent in their work."22

The author identifies what he terms "barriers to good strategy," such as "mistaking objectives for strategy," failing "to understand the enemy," and the "varying competence of senior national security decision-makers."23 To counteract these barriers, Krepinevich's primary suggestion is to create a latter-day version of Eisenhower's Planning

Board.24 In the final pages, Krepinevich applies his years of experience as a military planner and defense strategist as he details his vision to revitalize "concepts of operations," training, and facilities.25 Most likely, only those experienced in defense planning will fully comprehend the more technical suggestions. Any reader, however, can appreciate his salient theme: "time is growing short, and a sense of urgency is needed."26

Indeed, Krepinevich's zeal to create this "sense of urgency" contributes to both the strengths and weaknesses of his work. At his best, the author uses recent events as a plausible point from which his future world quickly spirals downward. For example, in his scenario "Just Not-on-Time," the author begins with the fascinating look at the...