Bahrain and the Battle between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

• Author: Handley, John

With much of the world's focus on Libya, the author, writing for the STRATFOR Geopolitical Weekly, believes that considerably more important demonstrations are occurring in Bahrain. To put Bahrain in perspective, one must first consider the December 31, 2011, scheduled pull out of the 50,000 U.S. troops currently in Iraq, whose government seems likely to remain unstable for the foreseeable future. Iran, with the "largest and most ideologically committed" military force in the region, has a population of 75 million-larger than all the Persian Gulf states combined-and hopes to become the region's dominant power. Whether or not Iran obtains nuclear weapons, Friedman opines that the nuclear issue has been largely diversionary because the fundamental issue of the regional balance, the future U.S. presence, has been ignored. Iran is working to change the balance of power in the region, not through military force but through covert action, and is "laying the foundation for power based on a perception of a greater Iranian power and declining American and Saudi power."

Bahrain, the author writes, is the obvious test case. The majority of its population is Shia while its Sunni government is closely linked to the U.S (home of the Fifth Fleet) and to Saudi Arabia. Tensions have long existed between Bahrain's government and its economically deprived Shia citizens. Should they bring down the Sunni government, the Shia in neighboring Saudi Arabia might attempt to remove Saudi Arabia's ruling Sunni family. Should the Saudis militarily assist Bahrain's government, the Iranians would have justification to launch their own intervention.

The extent of Iranian involvement in Bahrain's demonstrations is not known, but Iran does have influence over a cleric, Hassan Mushaima, who recently arrived in Bahrain from London to...