2014 colorado economic outlook: housing market, jobs outlook are keys to expected 'decent' year.

• Author: Adams, Tucker Hart
• Position: // ECONOMIC FORECAST // - Industry overview

OVER 35 YEARS IN THE FORECASTING BUSINESS, I've learned that no one can consistently predict the future of the economy. So I've developed a series of rules to keep me from making some common mistakes. The most important may be: There is no new paradigm. The four most dangerous words in forecasting are, "This time its different."

The end of 2013 was a time when many pundits on the national and

international scene were wringing their hands and saying:

"THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT. THE WORLD IS MIRED IN ENDLESS RECESSION AND/OR SLOW GROWTH. EVERYTHING HAS CHANGED AND THE FUTURE IS GRIM."

Luckily Colorado economists aren't falling into the trap. Their outlook for 2014, while cognizant of the challenges we continue to face, is generally upbeat.

Our six economic forecasters - Tom Binnings, Gary Horvath, Natalie Mullis, Jason Schrock, Patty Silverstein and Richard Wobbekind - expect the recovery following the Great Recession (December 2007-June 2009), to continue through 2014. If that is indeed the case, it will exceed the post-World War II expansion average of 58 months. Their growth rate forecast for U.S output (Gross Domestic Product adjusted for inflation) varies from a modest 2 percent to a relatively robust 3.1 percent. Most of the forecasters expect Colorado to outperform the nation. Mullis, chief economist for the Colorado Legislative Council, is the most optimistic at 3.1 percent, while Horvath, an independent economist, is expecting only 2.3 percent nationally and statewide.

JOBS

THE MOST IMPORTANT variable in determining the economy's health is jobs. If people can't find jobs and, importantly, well-paying jobs, nothing else really matters. Here the expectations are moderately positive, with employment growth anticipated between 2.1 percent and 2.4...