2003 tourism forecast: what impact will the war have on our tourism industry? Only time will tell.

• Author: Schmitz, Richard F.

In 2003, for the first time in decades, Alaska's tourism industry may see a downturn. There's pessimism--but there's some optimism as well.

The common thread: a lot depends on how world affairs unfold, and what effects these events have on the economy. Good news may unleash a wave of pent-up demand for a few weeks of badly needed R&R--but bad news might hold folks to the security of a backyard barbecue.

"For the first time the industry's in decline. Really, that's what's new with (tourism)," said Dale Fox, while on an Alaska Tourism Industry Alliance legislative fly-in. "Business is going away."

Fox, who owns Bird Watching Tours of Anchorage, agreed there is an expected 4 percent increase in cruise ship travel, but said that will be more than offset by discounting, as well as passengers who are more cost-conscious.

Fox was in Juneau to ask legislators to increase marketing funds. Alaska, he told lawmakers, was facing greater competition for the domestic market, from states such as Hawaii and even Illinois, as well as from regional destinations such as Las Vegas or Branson, Mo.

"States and regions are spending more and more on marketing. Alaska must keep up," Fox said. "Without growth, (Alaska tourism) businesses just steal from one another."

Fox agreed there were some spots of sunshine. New cruise ships are heading Alaska's way in 2003, and the post Sept. 11, 2001, seasons have been better than many in the industry had predicted.

Leonard Deal, who owns Deal's B&B in Anchorage, said he's expecting a fairly normal summer season. "I have good expectations," he said.

Deal, who served on former Anchorage Mayor Rick Mystrom's B&B task force, said the biggest economic factor in Alaska's economy is increased competition. "There are more businesses, and that means fewer (customers) per business, even when there is growth in the industry," he said.

Deal said he's confident Alaska will remain a premier destination. "Alaska has things to see and do that no one else has. If you visit a small destination, you can't go anywhere else. But when you visit Alaska, you can go hundreds of miles in any direction and you're still at your destination."

The cruise industry will remain a strong backbone of Alaska's tourism industry--no question.

"There will be a small increase over last year--26 ships, up from 25," said John Hansen of the North West Cruise Ship Association. As for bookings, Hansen said how the Iraq war events develop will have a considerable bearing...