A wave or a ripple?

• Author: Storey, Tim
• Position: ELECTIONS - Analysis of the 2012 presidential elections

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The bruising battle for the White House between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney has consumed virtually all the media's attention. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent on TV, radio and Internet ads targeted at specific groups of voters in about a dozen states. The race will be at the top of most people's minds when they vote on Nov. 6.

The contests for more than 6,000 state legislative seats have garnered far less attention. That does not, however, mean they are less important. Far from it. Those thousands of races will determine the party control of legislatures when they convene next year to tackle tough issues--concerns the vast majority of Americans feel Washington, D.C., has failed to address. And if history is any guide, the party who wins the White House will likely claim more victories in state legislative races as well.

Neither presidential candidate looks poised to deliver a knockout punch on election day. Contrast that to the races in 2006 and 2008, when it was fairly clear by late fall that Democrats were on track for major legislative gains. The same was true for Republicans in 2010, when they walloped Democrats at the ballot box, picking up more than 700 legislative seats.

Enthusiasm in both parties is lagging well behind where it was in 2008 and 2010. In fact, most voters just want the election to be over, according to Democratic pollster Peter Hart. That may be good news for Republicans who currently hold a distinct advantage in control of legislatures.

What's at Stake

This year's election is the first to follow the once-a-decade redrawing of district boundaries based on new census data. In addition to creating a more unpredictable electoral landscape, redistricting also increases the number of seats normally up for election. That's because a few states require contests for all senate seats in the first election after redistricting, then re-stagger the terms in subsequent elections.

Eighty-two percent of all legislative seats are up for grabs on Nov. 6. That's more than 6,030 contests in 44 states. All 85 seats are up in Puerto Rico, as well as 15 senate seats each in the unicameral legislatures in Guam and the Virgin Islands.

The only states not holding legislative elections are Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia. They conduct state elections in odd-numbered years. All lawmakers in Alabama and Maryland, as well as senators in Michigan, are elected to four-year terms. Since they...