Multivariate modelling of the Canary Islands banana output. the role of farmer income expectation.
INTRODUCTIONThe social, political and economic importance of the banana market shapes many of the decision-making policies of the EU, where the volume of regulations over recent decades concerning Farming Integration, and specifically of the banana market, has called attention to the concerns over this market. More recently, the topic of subsidies for domestic production is being addressed in an effort to adapt the market to globalization and to open it up to Latin American countries, the dollar area and ACP, as well as to try to balance the interests of all those involved (producers, exporters, importers and consumers). Relevant scientific research has also tried to shed some light on the issue, in particular on the implications that certain deregulatory or anti-protectionist measures in the EU market would have economically both within the EU and elsewhere. A search of scientific references involving bananas in the ranking of the Journal Citation Reports (Science Citation Index and Social Science Citation Index) reveals over five thousand results. Such references are evidence of continued scientific interest, especially starting in the 1990s, following the establishment of European subsidies intended to offset losses in production income. Among these references, however, there is a shortage of works that specifically address the social, environmental and/or economic/financial aspects involved. Particularly lacking is the use of quantitative tools to analyse econometric models, statistical data, types of competition in the market, supply-demand elasticity and so on [1-7 among others]. This relative dearth may be due to, as stated in (28), the extreme lack of available data, particularly as concerns prices along the supply chain, which constitutes a decisive parameter that affects the result of every analysis. Specifically, few studies exist concerning the situation of the banana crop in the Canary Islands (www.mapa.es). The seven island...