Emerging Trends in Terrorism
| Author | William Dyson |
| Pages | 100-115 |
Page 100
Terrorism probably presents a greater threat at the beginning of the twenty-first century than at any time in the history of the world. The attacks that occurred in the United States on September 11, 2001, and the bombings in Madrid in 2003 and London in 2005 made that all too clear. Advances in technology that occurred during the latter part of the twentieth century, and that will undoubtedly continue throughout the twenty-first century, have enhanced the ability of terrorists to strike accurately—and with extraordinary violence. Even worse, people who would previously have never resorted to the use of extreme violence are now capable of venting their dissatisfaction through the use of terrorism. Most special-interest or single-issue extremists fall within this category.
It is likely that throughout the ages at least some political malcontents have considered the idea of perpetrating an act of mass destruction as a vehicle to pressure the government and the population to adopt their demands. Fortunately for humankind, the capability to easily conduct such an action simply did not exist until the later twentieth century. During most of history, a military unit would have been required to kill thousands of people within minutes or to cause millions of dollars in damage in a single action. That all changed during the twentieth century.
In a May 17, 2000, commencement address to the U.S. Coast Guard Academy at New London, Connecticut, President Bill Clinton mentioned this issue. He advised, "the central reality of our time is that the advent of globalization and the revolution in information technology have magnified both the creative and the destructive potential of every individual, tribe, and nation on our planet." He continued by noting that the miniaturization of weapons will enable small groups or "free agents" to pose serious threats that were once possible only when initiated by hostile nations (Babington 2000).
So-called conventional weapons—weapons that do not incorporate chemical, biological, or nuclear payloads—have considerably improved and can now be used to cause catastrophic damage. Readily available explosives were used by relatively small numbers of people to bomb the World Trade Center in New York in 1993 and the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City in 1995. In both these attacks, the death toll could have been much greater. If the World Trade Center tower actually had toppled in the 1993 attack, as was apparently the intent of the perpetrators, tens of thousands of people could have died. Similarly, if the Murrah Building had erupted into a flaming inferno—as certainly could have happened in an explosion of that magnitude—many of those who did survive the blast would have perished. Furthermore, modern technology has made it possible for violence-prone activists to deploy otherwise mundane objects as lethal weapons capable of horrific destruction. The use of commercial airliners as weapons on September 11, 2001, illustrated this danger.
Prior to September 11, one of the most costly terrorist attacks ever to occur on U.S. soil (financially) took place on October 18, 1998, when the Earth Liberation Front (ELF) used a flammable liquid to burn down buildings at a ski resort in Vail, Colorado. Despite the fact that no exotic weapons were employed in this attack, the damage exceeded $12 million.
Nuclear weapons that were unheard of prior to the middle of the twentieth century are now found in many
Page 101
countries around the globe. While it is unlikely that terrorists will have such weapons in their arsenals any time in the near future, the possibility does exist. Some terrorists who are assisted by nations identified as "sponsors" of international terrorism could conceivably obtain nuclear weapons or radiological materials through their supporters. In 2006 six nations—Cuba, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Sudan, and Syria—were designated as sponsors of international terrorism by the U.S. Department of State.
The likelihood that terrorists could effectively employ nuclear weapons in an attack is not high as of 2006. However, considering the devastating effects radioactive materials can have both on human heath and the possible extensive fiscal costs for environmental decontamination and cleanup, authorities should pay particular attention to the threat of radiological and nuclear terrorism.
The Aum Shinrikyo (Supreme Truth) organization perpetrated an attack on March 20, 1995, of the kind that many law enforcement officials feared—deadly sarin gas was dispersed into the subway system in Tokyo, Japan. Twelve people died and thousands were sickened. The message was unmistakable: terrorists could employ chemical weapons with lethal results. Although deadly to handle, sarin gas can be produced with relative ease, and there are many terrorists living in the United States capable of obtaining and using this extremely deadly chemical.
Biological weapons also represent a real danger to society. Anthrax-laced mailings to members of the U.S Congress and the news media occurred shortly after the September 11 attacks, resulting in five deaths. What relation, if any, these incidents had with the four airplane attacks remained unknown as of early 2006, and the exact perpetrators were yet to be identified. However, there have been scores of threats by dissidents to use anthrax against their targets. Abortion clinics have been frequent recipients of such warnings. In January 2000 police arrested Micky A. Sauer of Kenosha, Wisconsin, on charges that he mailed envelopes allegedly containing anthrax to over a dozen abortion clinics and other locations in southeastern Wisconsin. None of the envelopes contained actual anthrax.
Over the span of human history, millions of people have succumbed to naturally occurring biological agents, such as smallpox, bubonic plague, AIDS, and most recently, H5N1 avian influenza. These agents—or even more exotic ones—spread by a terrorist group might prove to actually be more deadly than when they have occurred naturally, since terrorists could specifically direct them to reach the maximum number of targeted people.
Obviously, anyone who attempts to use chemical and biological agents as weapons is placed in great jeopardy. The slightest mistake could result in the terrorist's demise. Nonetheless, the ability that these types of weapons provide to terrorists to hold a body of people "hostage" to their demands will likely be enough incentive to induce some terrorists to take the risks associated with chemical and biological agents.
The possibility of assassinations may be greater than ever before. Throughout most of history, the assassination of a prominent political leader was often regarded as a suicide mission. The weaponry was so rudimentary that, in order to ensure success, the assassin had to be close enough to see the victim with a naked eye. This difficulty usually resulted in the assassin being killed or captured—ultimately sacrificing his or her own life for the cause. Advances in technology, however, have dramatically altered the sacrificial nature of assassination, allowing for more clandestine accessibility and accuracy.
It is certainly not beyond the capability of some modern terrorist groups to assassinate several government leaders during a single attack. Terrorists have access to a wide array of firearms, such as rockets, that can be fired from great distances against a specific human target. Indeed, many hunters own weapons that are capable of striking a target that is out of the range of unaided vision. Explosives technology has also improved markedly. Of even greater significance are the rapid advances in detonating systems that permit remote and delayed initiations of bombs and rockets.
During the 1960s and 1970s current and emerging terrorist threats could be defined by the activities of specific groups and by advancements in communications and weaponry. Terrorism is much more complex in the twenty-first century. In order to fully explore the current threat situation, one must study not only the active groups, but also the political causes, the specific issues, and the violent tactics being employed. In some instances, the same issues are being targeted by differing groups. Similarly, divergent groups are using identical tactics to achieve their objectives.
Dedication to their cause is a trait that can be assigned to all terrorists. They are willing to place the promulgation of their political philosophy above almost anything else. The September 11 attacks illustrate that, for some, the dedication goes beyond the...
To continue reading
Request your trial